Episode 1244: Year Behind, Year Ahead – Special 2026 White Paper – January 9, 2026

Today's Post -

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, the first of 2026, David L. Bahnsen reflects on the events of 2025 and provides insights and predictions for the year ahead. Key topics include the impact of the Trump administration's policies, particularly relating to tariffs and the tax bill, and their influence on the stock market and economy. David discusses major themes such as the performance of risk assets, the state of the AI industry, housing market trends, the significance of midterm elections, and the potential for small cap growth. Predictions for 2026 include the vulnerabilities in AI, the tug of war between economic drivers and headwinds, and the outlook for energy and M&A activities. The episode provides a comprehensive review and forward-looking analysis aimed at helping investors make informed decisions in the coming year.

00:00 Introduction and Annual Review Overview

01:47 Reflecting on 2025: Key Questions and Themes

06:18 Major Events and Market Reactions in Early 2025

10:14 Mid-Year Market Volatility and Policy Shifts

12:27 Third Quarter Market Dynamics and Labor Market Concerns

17:57 Year-End Market Performance and Sector Analysis

25:53 Evaluating 2025 Predictions and Themes

30:56 China Relations: A Bold Prediction

33:42 Financial Deregulation: A Mixed Bag

35:14 Earnings Disappointment: A Risky Theme

36:27 Corporate Activity: A Record Year

38:17 Deficit Reduction: A Contrarian View

40:11 Quantitative Tightening Ends

42:18 2026 Themes: AI Vulnerabilities

47:45 Economic Tug of War

50:06 Midterm Elections and Market Impact

51:38 Housing Market Predictions

53:11 Small Cap vs. S&P 500

53:51 Foreign Appetite for US Assets

54:43 Energy Sector: A Contrarian Opportunity

55:47 Mergers and Acquisitions Outlook

56:19 Conclusion: Upside Risks and Cautious Optimism

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com