Dividend Cafe Midweek: Cooler PPI, Strong Financials, and Middle East Risk Scenarios
On Wednesday, July 15, Brian Szytel reports modest market gains (Dow +150, S&P 500 +0.4%, Nasdaq +0.6%) amid a positive early Q2 earnings tone, though Middle East tensions temper sentiment and momentum tech (semis and software) has been pressured. He highlights notable strength in financials, citing rising lending, M&A, and capital markets activity, with investment banking up about 30%, capital markets up over 15%, and financial earnings up over 6%, viewing this as a forward-looking sign of economic confidence. The day’s key news was a second straight cooler-than-expected inflation report: PPI fell 0.3% vs flat expected and core rose 0.2% vs 0.4% expected, implying a favorable PCE read. He discusses potential market impacts if Strait of Hormuz disruption persisted (higher oil, inflation, rates; pressure on long-duration assets; benefits to U.S. production), while noting futures imply ~$75 oil in a year, and adds a strong Empire State manufacturing print (15.6 vs 8.4 expected).
00:00 Market Close Recap
00:23 Earnings Season Pulse
01:00 Financials Lead Strength
02:26 Cooler Inflation Data
03:40 Hormuz Risk Scenario
05:15 Futures Reality Check
05:28 Manufacturing Beat Wrap
05:57 Final Sign Off
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Brian Szytel is the Co-CIO and Senior Managing Director of The Bahnsen Group.
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