Episode 1418: Tuesday - September 22, 2026

Brian Szytel recaps a mixed market day: the S&P 500 finished flat, the Dow fell 185 points, and the Nasdaq rose about 0.5% as long-end yields eased slightly and the 10-year held near 4.95%. He notes financial conditions have loosened a bit since the Fed’s recent hike, with stocks higher, tight credit spreads, and long yields down, while markets still price more restrictive Fed policy even as WTI slipped below $90. He observes a previously strong negative correlation between AI/semiconductors and software stocks is becoming more nuanced, creating potential opportunities. Addressing a listener question, he explains how the long-running yen carry trade was amplified by U.S. rate hikes and Japan’s zero rates, but is now unwinding as Japan raises rates, reducing arbitrage, prompting deleveraging and some risk-asset pressure, though orderly so far.

00:00 Market Snapshot

00:27 Rates and Fed Conditions

01:11 Oil Move and Inflation Signals

02:05 AI Semis vs Software Rotation

03:45 Outlook for More Hikes

04:32 Carry Trade Explained

05:52 BOJ Shift and Deleveraging

07:23 Wrap Up and Calendar

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com