Episode 1384: Tuesday - August 4, 2026

On August 4, Brian Szytel recaps a massive cross-asset rally as markets price hopes of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz: oil fell 6% to $75, the 10-year yield dropped 7 bps to 4.61%, and stocks and bonds rose (Dow +907, S&P +1.8%, Nasdaq +2.6% led by semis/AI). He notes the market has become desensitized to Middle East risk and remains skewed upward with major indexes up 12.5%–14% YTD, but highlights unusually violent, bifurcated single-stock moves around earnings as investors struggle to discount AI impacts amid accounting and borrowing stresses. He warns leverage amplifies drawdowns, citing July deleveraging and a 4:1-levered AI hedge fund collapsing after a 67% drawdown. Economic data: job openings 7.3M (in line/slightly low), factory orders -0.3% vs +0.3% expected, trade deficit $73.3B. He answers a viewer question on inflation, explaining the Fed can influence money supply via its balance sheet but can’t directly control velocity, relying on multiple tools including interest on reserves, and references efforts to shift narratives back toward market-set pricing.

00:00 Market Rally Recap

00:16 Oil Rates And Geopolitics

01:50 Year To Date Performance

02:10 Wild Stock Reactions

02:56 AI Accounting And Volatility

03:33 Leverage And Hedge Funds

04:41 Economic Data Check

05:26 Fed Money Supply Question

05:57 How The Fed Tools Work

07:47 Wrap Up And Sign Off

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com