Episode 1389: Tuesday - August 11, 2026
Markets Await CPI as Szytel Breaks Down Rising U.S. Debt Growth and Tax Revenue
Markets Await CPI as Szytel Breaks Down Rising U.S. Debt Growth and Tax Revenue
Brian Szytel hosts Dividend Cafe on Tuesday, August 11, describing a quiet, rudderless market session ahead of tomorrow’s CPI, with the Dow and S&P down about 0.3% and the Nasdaq down about 0.6%, the 10-year near 4.69%, and oil up about 1%. He notes better-than-expected NFIB small business optimism (99.8 vs. 97) and slightly stronger existing home sales (~4.1 million) though housing remains frozen by higher rates. Szytel then analyzes U.S. federal debt growth across eras since 2000, citing debt CAGR of 7.3% (2000–2008), 8.0% (2008–2017), 9.5% (2017–2022), and 6.6% (2022–now), arguing debt still grows faster than nominal GDP even in strong times. He also clarifies U.S. tax revenue is 17% of GDP federally but 27% including state and local when comparing to Europe’s ~50%.
00:00 Market Snapshot
00:56 Economic Data Check
01:39 Debt Growth Explained
02:53 Debt Eras Breakdown
04:03 Why It Still Matters
05:43 Tax Revenue Clarification
06:47 Wrap Up
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Brian Szytel is the Co-CIO and Senior Managing Director of The Bahnsen Group.
View episodesGet new episodes of The Dividend Cafe automatically
