Episode 1391: Thursday - August 13, 2026
Markets Rally on Disinflationary PPI; Fed Hike Odds Drop as Debt Concerns Resurface
Markets Rally on Disinflationary PPI; Fed Hike Odds Drop as Debt Concerns Resurface
Brian Szytel reviews a broad market rally with the Dow up 69 points, the S&P 500 up two-thirds of a percent, and the Nasdaq up eight-tenths, alongside a modest bond rally as the 10-year yield fell three basis points to 4.65; WTI oil declined about 2.5% to $81. He highlights disinflationary data following a cooler CPI, with PPI coming in flat versus expectations of +0.2 and core PPI at 0.2 versus 0.3, putting core PPI at 4.2% year over year. Fed futures shifted, with September hike odds falling to about 32% from over 50% two days prior, while fundamentals remain strong despite valuation concerns near 22x. Weekly jobless claims were slightly worse at 209k versus 204k. He also discusses how inflation can erode sovereign debt burdens, risks of high debt-to-GDP (U.S. ~120%), and contrasts with Japan’s 204% given domestic ownership of JGBs.
00:00 Market Rally Recap
00:46 Inflation Data Boost
01:55 Rates Expectations Shift
02:26 Valuations Versus Fundamentals
03:08 Weekly Claims And Geopolitics
03:33 Debt And Inflation Playbook
04:54 US Debt To GDP Context
05:35 Japan Comparison And Scale
06:24 Wrap Up And Next Episode
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Brian Szytel is the Co-CIO and Senior Managing Director of The Bahnsen Group.
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