Episode 720: The DC Today - Thursday, October 12, 2023

Today's Post -https://bahnsen.co/3FkhgKh

The headline and Core CPI figures today were largely in line with expectations as the market opened. However, we witnessed a reversal of early morning gains throughout the session, resulting in both stocks and bonds closing lower. Interestingly, Fed futures remained relatively unchanged after the release of these numbers, hovering at approximately two-thirds, suggesting that the Fed is unlikely to make any significant changes in the foreseeable future.

Today marks the one-year anniversary of the market lows experienced last year. What’s intriguing, though, are the disparities within the markets that contributed to the S&P 500’s impressive 22% gain over the past year, following a significant downturn in the previous year. Currently, less than half of the market is trading above its 200-day moving averages, indicating that the market’s performance has been far from universally strong.

Financials, in particular, have experienced a nearly 20% decline during this recovery, and it’s worth noting that this has been the weakest small-cap return following a market bottom in history. However, there is good news amidst this divergence. The contrast between interest rate-sensitive sectors, such as small caps and financials, and the lack of broad market participation presents numerous opportunities for value investors like ourselves to look forward to. Active management will be crucial in navigating this complex landscape.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com