The DC Today - Thursday, November 9, 2023

Episode 738: The DC Today - Thursday, November 9, 2023

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Today's Post -

We started off todays session in another quiet day, until about 1PM ET when we had an abysmal 30-year treasury auction on $24B of notes that moved rates higher across the curve that gave us our first down day in November for the SP500. With an increased supply in new issuance to fund a $2T budget deficit and a dearth of large buyers like our own Federal Reserve and other large Sovereigns it took higher rates to get this auction to close with the lowest bid to cover ratio in weeks. 2’s are back over 5% and 10’s were up 11 bps.

Oil was flat on the day but down 7% this week back to pre-war levels, and while energy stocks have given up some gains as well keep in mind that the sector in large remains in an uptrend with 94% of the energy name complex has a 50 day moving average above its 200 day. I am far more focused on fundamentals like the increase in CAPEX in our names recently than technicals like this, but note worthy of its relative strength amongst other sectors nonetheless.

Powell’s comments today at the IMF cited that Fed officials were ‘not confident’ they were restrictive enough with rates to bring inflation back to 2%, which added to todays give back in stocks. So, the market tea leaves yesterday read his statement as dovish and today hawkish, and so there you go. I get into why this day-to-day Fed obsession shouldn’t matter to investors, and more in todays video podcast link below.

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Brian Szytel

Brian Szytel

Brian Szytel is the Deputy Managing Partner and Co-CIO of The Bahnsen Group.

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