Episode 657: The DC Today - Thursday, July 13, 2023

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Ddn2fV

Earnings season is officially underway (companies like Delta and Pepsi released today, and a slew of big banks release tomorrow).

The annual inflation rate came in yesterday at the lowest level in more than two years.

The dollar is at its lowest level (against a global basket of different currencies since April of last year.

Senator Warren is officially now yelling for Chairman Powell and the Fed to stop hiking interest rates (I have been waiting for a populist backlash; I just didn’t know if it would be from the right or the left first; now we know).

China exports fell -12.4% last month (year-over-year), with 11 months in a row of declining exports to the U.S. Hmmmmm …

Jobless claims came in at 237,000, heading south from the averages north of 250k we had been seeing!

Producer Prices are up +0.1% year-over-year. +0.1%. Zero percent inflation in wholesale prices. Now, let’s be real honest about something here. This is mostly a story of what we call “trading base effects.” Last year at this time, the YOY PPI was +11%, so that number was so silly that a year later, being up +0% is less profound than it may seem. But of course, the same was true before (only on the other side of the math), where a high YOY number was a by-product of the prior year’s price collapse. And we are supposed to do calculations off of these distortions?

But there is genuine price deflation in the producer prices (year-over-year) of processed and unprocessed core goods. Commodity prices are down. Supply chains have normalized. Wholesale prices have moderated entirely and are very likely heading lower based on manufacturing data. TIP spreads are showing implied inflation expectations of 1.95% for the next two years. Over five years, 2.19%.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com