It has been clear in the last few days that the market expects a declining number. You already know my expectation for the year.
Dow: +269 points (+0.81%) S&P: +1.28% Nasdaq: +1.76% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.54% (-7.6 basis points) Top-performing sector: Real Estate (+3.60%) Bottom-performing sector: Consumer Staples (+0.06%) WTI Crude Oil: $77.71/barrel (+3.45%)
ASK DAVID “The US government has stated that it will purchase crude oil to replenish the strategic reserve once the price hits $70. In effect, this seems to indicate that the government will purchase millions of barrels at $70.
Does this function as a price floor? And, if so, what impact does a government-created price floor have on markets?”
So just by way of clarification, they have indicated they want that to be the rough price level at which they will transact, but their rough and very ambiguous guidance on the subject would indicate the intent of more a floor than a ceiling and yet, if the price does not go (or stay) there, it may not be a price at which much transacts. The government cannot make the market cooperate. But to the extent the market expects that level to be a rough “floor,” I suppose one could assume in their economic calculation that some of the left tail risks of various price collapses are less likely. The problem is that they can change their mind, and any number of events could happen (upside or downside) that alter the economics here. What market actors ultimately know is that there is a forced buyer in the marketplace, and supply calculations, profit expectations, and a number of numerical considerations around production can be performed with that intervening fact lingering. It does suggest a certain backstop in matters which provide a bit of an asymmetrical risk/reward (in the producers’ favor). Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
David is the Founder, Managing Partner, and the Chief Investment Officer of The Bahnsen Group.View episodes
Get new episodes of The Dividend Cafe automatically