Episode 1422: Monday - September 28, 2026

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4AC4xy1

From Las Vegas ahead of an investment conference, the host recaps a volatile market day (Dow -347, S&P -0.77%, Nasdaq -0.92%) while the S&P sits near all-time highs despite very weak breadth: ~60% of S&P 500 names are down 20%+ and the market has seen repeated 52-week lows exceed highs; he clarifies a misunderstood stat showing the weighted average decline among 430 down names is 21.7%. He ties the damage to rising yields (10-year ~5.23%), notes defensives led on the down day (staples, healthcare, energy), and argues mega-cap rallies can occur within a longer consolidation after stretched valuations, with a “rubber band” in relative sector valuations. He also covers friendlier U.S.–China tone with mostly status-quo trade, election prediction-market odds, flat August durable goods, more housing price cuts and rising inventory, mixed office-market trends by city, Fed proposals to raise bank oversight thresholds, and oil near $93 with Iran/diesel-export headlines; Q3 ends this week and TBG begins annual manager meetings next week.

00:00 Welcome From Vegas

00:51 Friday Energy Plug

01:43 Market Drop Recap

02:38 Breadth Warning Signs

05:51 Bond Yields And Sectors

07:00 Mega Cap Rally Context

08:13 Valuation Rubber Band

09:30 China Talks Update

10:37 Election Odds And Senate Map

13:18 Economic And Housing Data

15:04 Fed Oversight Proposal

15:40 Oil And Energy Headlines

16:44 Week Ahead And Wrap Up

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com