Episode 1321: Monday - May 4, 2026

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/42MhQwc

David Bahnsen reviews a modest market pullback amid escalating Iran-related rhetoric and Strait of Hormuz risks: the Dow fell 557 points, the 10-year yield rose to 4.4%, and oil jumped above $105 while energy was the only S&P 500 sector up. He notes the unusually fast rebound from March volatility and points listeners to prior analysis on corrections vs bubbles and AI. In policy news, Spirit Airlines failed to secure a rescue and may face Chapter 7 liquidation. He discusses midterm dynamics favoring GOP Senate odds, very low initial jobless claims (190k), steady ISM manufacturing (52.7) with weaker employment, and travel-agency employment as a disruption case study for AI. CapEx is increasingly concentrated in large-cap tech/AI while small business investment plans hit a 2009-low. He covers administration frustration with Powell, futures implying little chance of cuts, and growing scrutiny of Fed independence. He cites Exxon on inventories masking supply stress and notes OPEC+ developments, midstream strength, and flat US rig counts.

00:00 Market Jitters and Iran

02:16 Correction Recovery Context

03:47 Sector Moves and Energy

04:04 Spirit Airlines Policy Fallout

04:56 Midterm Math and Senate Outlook

06:42 Jobs and Manufacturing Pulse

07:25 Travel Jobs and AI Disruption

08:55 CapEx Concentrated in AI

10:08 Fed Politics and Rate Path

11:46 Fed Independence and Swap Lines

13:02 Oil Inventories and Hormuz Impact

14:44 Energy Earnings and Rig Count

15:45 Wrap Up and Viewer Q&A

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com