Episode 1363: Monday - July 6, 2026
Markets Hit New Highs as Inflation Expectations Ease, Labor Data Softens, and Florida Housing Cools
Markets Hit New Highs as Inflation Expectations Ease, Labor Data Softens, and Florida Housing Cools
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4bvLEBZ
In the Monday Dividend Cafe, the host recaps a post–three-day weekend market rally with the Dow closing above 53,000 for the first time, the S&P 500 up 0.72%, and the Nasdaq up over 1%, while the 10-year Treasury remained around 4.47%. He notes TIP spreads show reduced inflation expectations even as longer yields imply stronger real growth, arguing the market can’t simultaneously justify Fed hikes on rising inflation expectations and claim the market is wrong as expectations fall; he also discusses futures pricing that still implies mostly one hike. He highlights market weakness as rotational rather than systemic, with communication services and tech leading and defensives lagging. Economic discussion includes disappointing June job growth and downward revisions alongside a lower unemployment rate driven by falling participation. He flags Florida housing supply, price cuts, and loss-making sales as signs prices were too high, contrasts with prolonged China home-price declines, and reviews steady oil, strong year-to-date midstream performance, and upcoming client reporting and geopolitical headlines.
00:00 Welcome and Setup
00:46 Market Open Recap
01:34 Rates and Inflation Signals
03:31 Will the Fed Hike
05:40 Rotation Not Rout
07:29 Economic Data Check
09:27 Florida Housing Warning
12:28 China Housing Contrast
13:02 Energy and Midstream Update
14:40 Week Ahead and Wrap
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
David is the Founder, Managing Partner, and the Chief Investment Officer of The Bahnsen Group.
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