Episode 1403: Monday - August 31, 2026

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4cPVI9C

David Bahnsen recaps Monday market action (Dow -374, S&P -0.33%, Nasdaq -0.12%; 10-year yield 4.76% up 3 bps), with energy leading on oil up 3% to about $86 and communication services lagging. He briefly shares midterm Senate race dynamics based on conversations with analysts, noting multiple paths for Democrats to win or lose the majority and warning against overconfidence in political predictions. Housing data showed August national median rent up 0.1% and down 0.8% year-over-year. He reviews Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech emphasizing price stability over employment, asserting a healthy labor market, concern about inflation, and a firm 2% target; markets raised implied September hike odds from ~38% to ~60% and to ~88% for a hike by year-end. Warsh discussed productivity questions (including AI), tight credit spreads, repudiated forward guidance with a “hall of mirrors” analogy, and delivered a cordial, potentially consensus-building tone. Bahnsen also notes a reported 35% U.S. government stake in a Venezuela oil venture with no short-term price impact, and that since 1950 September midterm years were evenly split between up and down markets.

00:00 Welcome and Agenda

01:05 Market Snapshot

02:13 Midterm Election Outlook

05:32 Housing and Rent Update

05:47 Jackson Hole Fed Takeaways

07:02 Rate Hike Odds and Targets

09:00 Forward Guidance and Consensus

11:25 Oil Moves and Venezuela Deal

12:06 September Midterm Seasonality

12:39 Closing and Next Episode Tease

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com