Episode 1311: Monday - April 20, 2026

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4tWfYfM

From Newport Beach after returning from New York, David explains how rapid news flow from the Iran war has repeatedly made weekend research obsolete, citing futures swinging from down ~500 points to a nearly flat Dow close (-0.01%) amid conflicting reports on the Strait reopening, peace talks, and ceasefire timing. Oil fell sharply last week (~13–14%) then rebounded ~5.8% Monday to near $89; an Iranian ship was seized and shipping disruptions continue, with air cargo rates up 40%. Markets were modestly lower in S&P/Nasdaq, the 10-year yield held just above 4.25%, materials led, and communication services lagged. Q1 bank earnings started strong overall; attention shifts to broader earnings and LNG-exposed midstream guidance. Private-credit LMEs have declined over nine months, breadth improved, and small caps remain ~9.6% ahead of big caps YTD. Politically, Senate control odds have tightened to roughly 50/50, but flipping enough seats is still difficult; prospects for a new House reconciliation bill look low. Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh hearings are expected this week, pending a DOJ/Powell-related issue.

00:00 Monday Setup

01:39 War News Whiplash

04:15 Market Recap

04:22 Earnings Season

05:18 Private Credit Signals

06:05 Breadth And Small Caps

06:33 Senate Odds Breakdown

10:40 Policy And Macro Watchlist

11:33 Energy And LNG Focus

12:11 Wrap Up And Next Steps

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

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