Episode 1377: Inflation vs. Deflation in an Age of AI

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3TdOnKh

David Bahnsen discusses whether the U.S. has shifted from the 1990–2020 disinflation era to a higher structural inflation range, engaging Dr. Lacy Hunt’s view that the prior 1.5–2.5% equilibrium may have broken toward 3.5–5% as globalization wanes. Bahnsen argues globalization aided disinflation but wasn’t the sole driver, emphasizing Hunt’s framework that rising government debt lowers money velocity, crowds out productive investment, and suppresses long-term growth. He questions whether deglobalization is truly structural, citing industrial-policy efforts as often half-hearted and inconsistently enforced. Turning to AI, he notes build-out is capital- and energy-intensive and can be temporarily inflationary, but sees two longer-run outcomes that both lean disinflationary: a favorable productivity-driven supply shock, or a recessionary bust if AI disappoints. He concludes the dominant backdrop remains excess government debt and spending depressing growth.

00:00 Welcome and Setup

00:28 Inflation Beyond Headlines

02:23 The Disinflation Era 1990-2020

04:08 Lacy Hunt and Debt Dynamics

06:35 Was Globalization the Driver

09:15 Is Globalization Really Ending

12:23 AI as the New Productivity Wave

14:02 Funding the Buildout

15:11 Two AI Outcomes Deflation Either Way

19:19 Final Takeaways and Signoff

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com