Episode 1296: Can the Bull Market Continue?
Is the Bull Market Intact? Labor, Financial Conditions, Profits—and Why Dividend Growth Matters
Is the Bull Market Intact? Labor, Financial Conditions, Profits—and Why Dividend Growth Matters
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4bzTmf0
David Bahnsen reviews recent market weakness and volatility and asks whether the secular bull market remains structurally intact, arguing the exact start date (2009, 2019, or late 2022) is ultimately semantic. He says bull markets are driven by corporate profits and sentiment rooted in economic reality, and that long-term history trends upward despite periodic recessions, geopolitical shocks, and bear markets. To assess sustainability, he focuses on three factors: labor markets, financial conditions, and corporate profits. He describes “purgatory” data—benign jobless claims but weaker hiring intentions and openings; tightening but not extreme credit conditions; and strong expected profit growth that is also vulnerable to disappointment amid high valuations. He concludes portfolio positioning matters more than predictions, emphasizing dividend growth investing as a defensive approach for both accumulators and retirees.
00:00 Bull Market Check-In
01:30 When Did It Start
04:34 Why Definitions Don’t Matter
05:04 What Ends Bull Markets
10:07 Labor Market Purgatory
12:06 Tightening Financial Conditions
13:35 Corporate Profits Outlook
14:59 Portfolio Takeaways
15:36 Why Dividend Growth Wins
17:53 Final Thoughts and Sign-Off
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
David is the Founder, Managing Partner, and the Chief Investment Officer of The Bahnsen Group.
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